New Seat Details - Doncaster North

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Doncaster North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
LAB	27,047	61.1%
CON	13,011	29.4%
UKIP	2,005	4.5%
LIB	882	2.0%
MIN	792	1.8%
OTH	510	1.2%
LAB Majority	14,036	31.7%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Doncaster North: Map

List of old seats forming part of Doncaster North

Old seat: Don Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Don Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Don Valley				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Doncaster	Conisbrough	11,443	Don Valley	2,572	4,811	94	0	0	0	239	0	7,716
Doncaster	Edlington and Warmsworth	7,729	Don Valley	1,800	3,467	79	0	0	0	128	0	5,474
Doncaster	Finningley	12,233	Don Valley	3,995	2,738	233	0	0	0	158	0	7,124
Doncaster	Hatfield	11,324	Don Valley	3,145	4,626	160	0	0	0	172	0	8,103
Doncaster	Rossington and Bawtry	12,842	Don Valley	3,414	4,220	164	0	0	0	439	0	8,237
Doncaster	Thorne and Moorends	8,527	Doncaster North	2,163	3,150	69	0	0	0	275	0	5,657
Doncaster	Tickhill and Wadworth	6,379	Don Valley	2,093	1,338	56	0	0	0	186	0	3,673
	Total	70,477		19,182	24,350	855	0	0	0	1,597	0	45,984

The full details of these calculations are given on the Don Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Doncaster North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Doncaster North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Doncaster North				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Doncaster	Adwick le Street and Carcroft	11,142	Doncaster North	1,476	4,923	179	407	0	0	109	108	7,202
Doncaster	Bentley	12,121	Doncaster North	1,623	4,955	172	427	0	0	167	164	7,508
Doncaster	Mexborough	11,263	Don Valley	1,630	3,919	47	539	0	0	188	185	6,508
Doncaster	Norton and Askern	10,922	Doncaster North	2,107	3,725	139	368	0	0	85	84	6,508
Doncaster	Roman Ridge	8,390	Doncaster North	1,260	3,090	93	356	0	0	51	51	4,901
Doncaster	Sprotbrough	8,865	Doncaster North	2,322	2,036	43	286	0	0	46	45	4,778
Doncaster	Stainforth and Barnby Dun	4,642	Doncaster Central	699	1,698	21	193	0	0	36	35	2,682
Doncaster	Thorne and Moorends	3,624	Doncaster North	570	1,365	13	161	0	0	59	58	2,226
	Total	70,969		11,687	25,711	707	2,737	0	0	741	730	42,313

The full details of these calculations are given on the Doncaster North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Wentworth and Dearne

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wentworth and Dearne, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Wentworth and Dearne				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Barnsley	Dearne North	7,367	Barnsley East and Hemsworth	1,269	3,451	121	0	0	0	0	0	4,841
Barnsley	Dearne South	8,195	Doncaster North	1,490	3,803	174	0	0	0	0	0	5,467
Rotherham	Hoober	9,572	Wentworth and Hoyland	1,846	3,301	354	0	0	0	0	0	5,501
Rotherham	Rawmarsh	9,262	Wentworth and Hoyland	1,722	4,070	197	0	0	0	0	0	5,989
Rotherham	Silverwood	9,331	Wentworth and Hoyland	2,042	3,492	208	0	0	0	0	0	5,742
Rotherham	Swinton	9,009	Wentworth and Hoyland	1,615	3,523	188	0	0	0	0	0	5,326
Rotherham	Wath	10,317	Wentworth and Hoyland	1,799	3,615	204	0	0	0	0	0	5,618
Rotherham	Wickersley	9,099	Rotherham	1,962	3,292	210	0	0	0	0	0	5,464
	Total	72,152		13,745	28,547	1,656	0	0	0	0	0	43,948

The full details of these calculations are given on the Wentworth and Dearne seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Doncaster North

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Doncaster North
Barnsley	Dearne South	9,316	Wentworth and Dearne	1,490	3,803	174	0	0	0	0	0	5,467
Doncaster	Adwick le Street and Carcroft	12,317	Doncaster North	1,476	4,923	179	407	0	0	109	108	7,202
Doncaster	Bentley	12,843	Doncaster North	1,623	4,955	172	427	0	0	167	164	7,508
Doncaster	Norton and Askern	11,131	Doncaster North	2,107	3,725	139	368	0	0	85	84	6,508
Doncaster	Roman Ridge	8,383	Doncaster North	1,260	3,090	93	356	0	0	51	51	4,901
Doncaster	Sprotbrough	8,174	Doncaster North	2,322	2,036	43	286	0	0	46	45	4,778
Doncaster	Thorne and Moorends	9,101	Don Valley	2,163	3,150	69	0	0	0	275	0	5,657
Doncaster	Thorne and Moorends	3,806	Doncaster North	570	1,365	13	161	0	0	59	58	2,226
	Total	75,071		13,011	27,047	882	2,005	0	0	792	510	44,247

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Doncaster North. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Ed Miliband (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	75,071
Turnout:	58.9%

Doncaster North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Doncaster North: Overview

Introduction